Well, it's out in the open, now. With a recent video snippet on CNET (at http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-2895018.html) that was probably poured over more than any other past messages coming out of Palm, Carl Yankowski shared a glimpse of the future. In the recent PDMA keynote, Carl, an avid aviator and instrument-rated aerial acrobat, expanded on those fleeting CNET references and took the audience through his loop-the-loop product roadmap via a PowerPoint presentation.

Coming in 2001: "The world in every Palm"
Carl was clear about the switch in focus. In the past, Palm had deliberately and carefully pushed a marketing message stressing the ubiquitous need for the "connected organizer." "A Palm in every hand," was how Carl typified this pre-Y2K approach. This year, the focus has switched to increasing the breadth of functionality of the device through the "associated services" angle embodied in Palm.Net and coming wireless products. Think "wireless services". Also, there's good news for gadgeteers: Carl says we can expect device prices to plummet drastically, as competitors, hungry for market share, pressure commodity pricing, and the increasing value of wireless services changes the business model in the direction of the old Marketing 101 razor/razorblades analogy.

Since Carl was delivering the same content he had recently presented to Salomon Smith Barney on Wall Street, we got to hear some of the numbers, too. Sales projected for Q4 2000 are 1.5 million units. Inventory turns at 32 per year. For those of you who aren't familiar with the concept of an inventory turn, it means how often a company's inventory is replaced. A general rule of thumb is, the more inventory turns, the less obsolete inventory becomes and the more healthy a company. 32 inventory turns per year indicates that Palm expects to completely clear out and replace inventory every week and a half, or so. The annual revenue run-rate expected at year-end is $2 billion. As Carl noted, "We've got the tiger by the tail."

Why Palm thinks they've succeeded
As users, we've all got our own understanding of the value of our favorite electronic companions. We know what they do for us. We know what we wish they could do, and what we'd like to change. So what does Palm think? Reassuringly, they seem to be giving this some solid consideration. Carl's primary comment in this area was that Palm is successful precisely because they didn't take on too many technical challenges at any one time. "We've stuck to our knitting", Carl remarked, "It is our ability to keep technology transparent that will keep us on top."

Additionally, and perhaps notably for PalmPower's Enterprise Edition audience, Carl also threw out a zinger: "How do we do it? By trying not to listen only to the geeks." He added with a chuckle, "That's tough, though. We've got 450 engineers we pay to try to keep things simple. And, after all, I'm probably the biggest gadget geek of them all!"